An Unexpected Senate Race

As votes continue to be counted in the 2020 election, control of the Senate remains uncertain, although Republicans appear poised to keep the chamber. Control could come down to races in Georgia headed for runoff early next year.

Congressional expert Ross Baker, a Distinguished Professor of political science at Rutgers University-New Brunswick and the author of Is Bipartisanship Dead? weighs in on the Senate races and upsets in the House.

Democrats were favored to take the majority this year, but that may not happen. Why?

The senators who faced reelection this year were last elected in 2014. So, if you were elected in that year – whether Democrat or Republican – you had to face the voters this year, which is also a presidential year. It’s essentially a crapshoot. You will get senators from states where their party is strong and others from competitive states. You will have senators whose terms coincided with major achievements and others who have nothing to show for their time in the Senate. Success in getting reelected is largely in the luck of the draw, including whether the president of your party, should you be up for reelection in a presidential year, wins decisively or narrowly.  

What would a Biden presidency and a Republican-majority Senate mean for legislative decision-making, and what will some of the first priorities be?

A COVID-19 relief package will be the major priority, but what’s in it is the big question. Will Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell go for another round of $1,200 checks? I don’t think so. He may be forced to accept money for state and local governments. If Biden wins, he might want to sneak in some green-tinged infrastructure money. Cabinet members will also be a top item. McConnell may try to block nominees he sees as too liberal.

The best case right now for Senate Democrats would be a 50-50 tie. In 2001, there was a 50-50 Senate in the aftermath of the contested 2000 election. Republican leader Trent Lott and Democrat leader Tom Daschle agreed to a power-sharing agreement on committee seats, office space, legislative programs, etc. The stalemate was broken the following year when Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to caucus with the Democrats.

What were some of the big upsets in the House race?

The biggest upsets were among Democrats, such as Iowa Rep. Abbie Finkenauer and South Carolina Rep. Joe Cunningham, elected in the 2018 “Blue Wave." This is a common occurrence known as the “sophomore slump.”